Are GB modern FDC or presentation packs better investments?

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BartyBoy

Are GB modern FDC or presentation packs better investments?

Post by BartyBoy »

It is something which has been going around in my mind for a while...

Between a first day cover and a presentation pack, which one gives a better investment value in general?

Every time when a new set of stamps released by Royal Mail, I would go and buy a FDC and a PP from my local post office. I have been doing the same routine for almost 12 years now.

As the stamps are getting more and more expensive, I am considering to just buy either FDCs or PPs from 2013 and so on, therefore I would like to know which one I should drop – FDCs or PPs?

Many thanks in advance!
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Re: First day covers or presentation packs?

Post by DJM »

Only a crystal ball will tell you that - chances are you'll buy one thing but it will be the other that rockets in value...

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Re: First day covers or presentation packs?

Post by fromdownunder »

Stick with the Presentation Packs. At least you will be able to use the stamps for postage some time in the future, and go close to breaking even.

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Re: First day covers or presentation packs?

Post by GlenStephens »

BartyBoy wrote:
Between a first day cover and a presentation pack, which one gives a better investment value in general?

Every time when a new set of stamps released by Royal Mail, I would go and buy a FDC and a PP from my local post office. I have been doing the same routine for almost 12 years now.

Well if you like this wallpaper buy it by all means.

But what on earth makes you think either is an "investment"??

Unless you failed Business School pretty dramatically, spending 1000 quid on something worth a few 100 quid today is no "investment".

If you had spent 1000 quid on many real stamps over 12 years, they'd often be worth 2000 quid.

Bet then you'd need to pay more than some dealer paid for same, and you tell us you can't countenance that horror, so stick with the FDC's I'd say. :idea:

May as well go broke with a smile on your face.
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Re: First day covers or presentation packs?

Post by BartyBoy »

GlenStephens wrote:But what on earth makes you think either is an "investment"??
1999 Millennium Timekeepers, 2000 Her Majesty's Stamps Show, 2001 Nobel Prizes, 2002 Bridges of London, 2003 Fruit and Veg, 2004 Locomotives Classic, etc...

All these PPs seem to worth more than the face value, but the FDCs aren't. And in general, according to the SB catalogue and eBay, FDCs seem to have a lower re-sale value than PPs. This is why I am wondering whether it is worth to keep buying both PP and FDC.
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Re: Are GB modern FDC or presentation packs better investmen

Post by GlenStephens »

"One Swallow doth not a Summer make."

A few acorns among a field of cr*p over 12 years, does not make it any less a field of cr*p.
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Re: Are GB modern FDC or presentation packs better investmen

Post by gavin-h »

I'd go along with Norm's analysis.

Neither are a particularly good "investment", but of the two Presentation packs are better because the stamps still have postal validity.

And those with "1st" stamps which were bought for 46p last year are now worth 60p since the outrageous increase in rates earlier this year. :idea:
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Re: Are GB modern FDC or presentation packs better investmen

Post by BartyBoy »

gavin-h wrote:Neither are a particularly good "investment"
In that case, what should I really spend my money on?
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Re: First day covers or presentation packs?

Post by fromdownunder »

BartyBoy wrote:1999 Millennium Timekeepers, 2000 Her Majesty's Stamps Show, 2001 Nobel Prizes, 2002 Bridges of London, 2003 Fruit and Veg, 2004 Locomotives Classic, etc...

All these PPs seem to worth more than the face value,
OK, the first thing you need to establish is not that they seem to be worth more than face, but can you actually sell them at these prices. Or is "seem to be" an illusion? And how much more than face?

Only for the sake of the argument let us say that each of the packs you have mentioned do bring "more than face" on the secondary market, and do some sums. You have cited one pack per year.

My understanding is that GB produces maybe 10 - 12 packs per year, which means that 11 of the twelve lose money. So what profit do you need on the one biggie to break even.

If you need to buy one or more of every one, it is simply a raffle, in the hope that one of them will become a "biggie". Note that buying more than one of each multiplies your losses.

Some simple math:

The Country of Gruken produces 10 stamps per year, face value of 10 griks each. After one year, 9 of the 10 can be sold as discount postage for half face. Nine of the ten stamps are now worth 50 griks total.

The one good one needs to be worth (and get on the open market) 50 griks, or five times face for you to break even. And a lot more if you want to profit by buying one (or more) of everything.

Investing in anything modern in a scatter gun approach is a mugs and losers game. Investing in the "perfect investment" stamp only, and leaving aside which ones will lose you money is ideal. Let me know which one is which.

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Re: Are GB modern FDC or presentation packs better investmen

Post by fromdownunder »

BartyBoy wrote:In that case, what should I really spend my money on?
Well, I would suggest stamps that you like and want to look at and study and learn from. But what would I know, as I have only been collecting for 50 years.

If you are talking about investment, I have always said on this Board, about pretty much any stamps, that unless you know the market front, back and sideways, and I think most people agree, "none of the above"

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Re: Are GB modern FDC or presentation packs better investmen

Post by GlenStephens »

Nothing much is GB will be guaranteed to go up in value, as SG have hyped things too much.

Things like this below will increase in value by 5 or 10 times in the next decade, but will not appeal to you as you can't buy them from Royal Mail or your local PO.

But it IS an investment - platinum coated. These are REAL stamps and only 100s exist - not the millions of GB modern FDC.

Predicting things that will rise is pretty easy, if you have been doing it for decades - https://www.glenstephens.com/snnovember12.html
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Re: First day covers or presentation packs?

Post by joelk »

fromdownunder wrote:Stick with the Presentation Packs. At least you will be able to use the stamps for postage some time in the future, and go close to breaking even.

Norm

:lol: :lol: :lol: That's excellent advice! At least you're pretty sure of the outcome.

Of course, if that's the best outcome (and that's very likely indeed), then neither are good investments, which most people with some experience here will tell you.

If you want investments, as Glen says, buy some serious stamps, but don't expect a garantee of payback, or even of getting your money back. The market is too uncertain and not liquid enough for that.

I love buying some of the modern stamps, simply because I choose the stamps I like, but I know for a fact that I will not get my money back...Not even close, and that's before you factor in the time value of money.

The only items in my collection that have appreciated in value since I bought them (as far as I can tell), are the really rare, expensive ones, which happen to be in great condition or those that are more specialized (some proofs, plate numbers, etc...). No miracle there.

Cheers,
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Re: First day covers or presentation packs?

Post by BartyBoy »

fromdownunder wrote:My understanding is that GB produces maybe 10 - 12 packs per year, which means that 11 of the twelve lose money. So what profit do you need on the one biggie to break even.
Totally understand and agree with your comments, but what I am trying to work out here is whether FDCs or PPs give a better investment.

I am not talking about hundreds or thousands of pounds in return. But, for example, if both FDC and PP cost me £5 each to buy today, then a year or so later one of the two has its value increased by X amount, and the other one still remains the same value. Then I know it is better to spend the money on the one which grows a higher value, no matter how small or big the increase is.
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Re: First day covers or presentation packs?

Post by fromdownunder »

BartyBoy wrote:I am not talking about hundreds or thousands of pounds in return. But, for example, if both FDC and PP cost me £5 each to buy today, then a year or so later one of the two has its value increased by X amount, and the other one still remains the same value. Then I know it is better to spend the money on the one which grows a higher value, no matter how small or big the increase is.
Your OP talked about "investment". If as my post suggested means that 95% of what you have purchased has lost 50% of value...

Oh, never mind...

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Re: First day covers or presentation packs?

Post by CMJ »

BartyBoy wrote:I am not talking about hundreds or thousands of pounds in return. But, for example, if both FDC and PP cost me £5 each to buy today, then a year or so later one of the two has its value increased by X amount, and the other one still remains the same value. Then I know it is better to spend the money on the one which grows a higher value, no matter how small or big the increase is.
As there is almost no secondary market for modern GB FDCs there is little possiblilty of selling them for even 50% of the purchase price.

Individual presentation packs may increase in resale value but the majority will not, but at least those that don't will still be worth face value (to you as postage) in the future.

So my answer to the posed question "Are GB modern FDC or presentation packs better investments?" is "packs", as they will lose the least money. If you are lucky you may make a small profit.

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Re: First day covers or presentation packs?

Post by GlenStephens »

BartyBoy wrote:
I am not talking about hundreds or thousands of pounds in return. But, for example, if both FDC and PP cost me £5 each to buy today, then a year or so later one of the two has its value increased by X amount, and the other one still remains the same value. Then I know it is better to spend the money on the one which grows a higher value, no matter how small or big the increase is.
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Re: Are GB modern FDC or presentation packs better investmen

Post by vikingeck »

I am a collector for over 60 years now, Member of 3 Societies, Librarian of one and Auctioneer of a second one. As an experienced collector I frequently get asked to assist with the best way to dispose of the collection in a deceased's estate.

Early in the year I was asked for advice on a huge modern GB Collection. 20 Beautiful luxury albums . Virtually all Queen Elizabeth issues up to 2010 unmounted mint . The same in FDCs, and an almost complete run of presentation packs.

At Stampex in London I talked with 3 major dealers in GB and with one of medium sized UK Auction Houses . All said the same thing about 60% of the face value for the mint stamps , a few exceptional items would make more , Presentation packs 75% face for most though again a few are a bit above face . FDCs 10to 20p each ! and forget the deluxe albums at £150each !

For The Channel Islands and Isle of Man Collections we might get 30% Face!

Visit any stamp fair and dealers have hundreds of FDC priced at 50p, which is less than half the purchase price.

So for his "Investment" of maybe £5000 his widow will be lucky to get a third of that.

Collect what you like but neither option is an investment -------with modern GB you are unlikely to get your money back!

Believe me I have tried for others over the years and from the collections I have bought in below face value I haven't had to pay full postage now on my mail for 4 years !
whatever it is -------it's better than a poke in eye with a wet umbrella !
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Re: Are GB modern FDC or presentation packs better investmen

Post by BartyBoy »

vikingeck wrote:Visit any stamp fair and dealers have hundreds of FDC priced at 50p, which is less than half the purchase price.
That is what I am concerned...

OK, perhaps my English is not up to the standard here, so I shall simplify and repeat what I am after here.

If I can only choose one between FDCs and PPs, which one should I go for?

Obviously both FDC and PP contain the same stamps, so it is not a matter of buying the stamps that I prefer...

Sorry for any confusion may have caused.
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Re: Are GB modern FDC or presentation packs better investmen

Post by gavin-h »

BartyBoy wrote:OK, perhaps my English is not up to the standard here, so I shall simplify and repeat what I am after here.

If I can only choose one between FDCs and PPs, which one should I go for?
Well, maybe your English isn't up to standard because you've been given the answer FOUR TIMES and don't seem to get it: :wink:
gavin-h wrote:Neither are a particularly good "investment", but of the two Presentation packs are better because the stamps still have postal validity.
vikingeck wrote:Presentation packs 75% face for most though again a few are a bit above face . FDCs 10to 20p each !
CMJ wrote: ...my answer to the posed question "Are GB modern FDC or presentation packs better investments?" is "packs", as they will lose the least money. If you are lucky you may make a small profit.
fromdownunder wrote:Stick with the Presentation Packs. At least you will be able to use the stamps for postage some time in the future, and go close to breaking even.
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Re: Are GB modern FDC or presentation packs better investmen

Post by BartyBoy »

Gosh, you are so honest! :D
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Re: Are GB modern FDC or presentation packs better investmen

Post by Machaggis52 »

Unless you are a dealer, forget about future value. You are not going to sell them, your estate is, by which time you are attempting to explain yourself at the highest court of all. :D
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Re: Are GB modern FDC or presentation packs better investmen

Post by TalentedMonkey »

BartyBoy wrote:
vikingeck wrote:Visit any stamp fair and dealers have hundreds of FDC priced at 50p, which is less than half the purchase price.
That is what I am concerned...

OK, perhaps my English is not up to the standard here, so I shall simplify and repeat what I am after here.

If I can only choose one between FDCs and PPs, which one should I go for?

Obviously both FDC and PP contain the same stamps, so it is not a matter of buying the stamps that I prefer...

Sorry for any confusion may have caused.
Presentation Packs, as at least you still can get your money back as the stamps will still hold value, unless sods law the UK moves to Euro and those mint stamps are now worthless as far as tender item goes.

First day covers died as an investment decades ago. I remember walking into my local stamp shop a few years ago, there was a huge box in corner stuffed with FDCs loose, He was begging people to take them, make a donation in the charity box for them and if they not gone rest would be dumped.

Condition is everything, especially with more modern GB material and FDC with slightest dink in the corner will be worthless as there will be another perfect one available.However I can not see British stamps being an investment as a philatelic item ever again.
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Re: Are GB modern FDC or presentation packs better investmen

Post by norvic »

Meanwhile another member is trying to sell some GB FDCs at far below SG catalogue value, but such covers from Bureau standing orders, with addresses printed on retail at our local fair for 20p each.

Covers with hand-written addresses fare even worse.
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Re: Are GB modern FDC or presentation packs better investmen

Post by fromdownunder »

I occasionally buy GB FDC's locally for not very much, and soak the stamps off for "fine used" (yes, I know and there is no need to go there). It often works out cheaper than buying the used sets (if they can be found in Australia). I also often find singles cut from FDC's in local GB kiloware.

So one thing I can assure everyone of - the total quantity of modern GB (and Channel Islands for that matter) FDC's is going down, and in 100 years, there may only be just enough left to meet demand.

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Re: Are GB modern FDC or presentation packs better investmen

Post by GrinningGrendel »

On a related note, what stamps are a promising investment? (Aside from the platinum-coated stamps previously mentioned.)

I'm not interested in making a profit from this hobby; I'm just curious.
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Re: Are GB modern FDC or presentation packs better investmen

Post by fromdownunder »

GrinningGrendel wrote:On a related note, what stamps are a promising investment?
The ones that go up in value.

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Re: Are GB modern FDC or presentation packs better investmen

Post by Rog »

You only need to go on eBay and look at all the FDCs that sell for very little...

I used to collect them when I was younger, but they take up too much space. Fine if you like them, but there's so few that are actually worth something. Packs are a little better and like said above at least you could still use the stamps. Same with the postcards, I've been trying to sell mint packs (came in a bulk lot) for over a year now at around a £1 a set...sold two packs...

So I don't bother with any of that kind of thing now - I think commenters are right - get some 'real' stamps.
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Re: Are GB modern FDC or presentation packs better investmen

Post by passport_collect »

The harsh reality is that both are very poor as investments, and the FDCs are a terrible investment.

As for the packs that have doubled in value over ten years, so what? I would expect at least that sort of return if I had invested the same money in equities (with dividends reinvested) over a ten year period.
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